Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
