A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
